A study by Wichita State University’s Center for Economic Development and Business Research (CEDBR) estimates the population of Kansas will grow by 469,000 over the 50-year period from 2022-2072, a cumulative increase of 16%. However, many counties are projected to lose population, including most of the Golden Belt. Barton County is projected to lose more than a quarter of its population and Pawnee County is projected to lose more than half.

Here are the Kansas population growth projections for area counties for 2072:

• Barton  -29.1%

• Ellsworth +6.7%

• Pawnee -51.3%

• Rice +2.8%

• Rush -42.7%

• Russell -33.4%

• Stafford +3.7%

Non-white residents are predicted to drive the growth, according to the forecast, making the population of Kansas more diverse. Statewide, the ethnicity in 2022 was 85.9% white, 6.2% Black and 7.9% “other.” The projection for 2072 is 79.5% white, 7.3% Black and 13.2% other.

The state’s population is certified by the Kansas Division of the Budget. On July 1, the state’s 2023 data were released. From 2022-2023, Barton County lost 181 people and 117 of those were from Great Bend, repeating losses from 2021-2022 (136 countywide and 91 from Great Bend).

Again, the Kansas population grew by 3,396 between 2022 and 2023, putting the state population at 2.94 million. But 14 cities in Kansas, including Great Bend, lost at least 100 people. Barton County lost 117, leaving a population of 14,372.

The projections for the future are based on many factors but let’s be honest. It would take a crystal ball with supernatural powers to predict what the next 50 years will hold. Could anyone have imagined, back in 1974, what our lives would be like in 2024? 

What the numbers do show is that our population is shifting away from rural numbers. Without forward thinking, we’re not likely to thrive.

Conventional wisdom shows that Barton County will thrive if agriculture and the oil and gas industry are thriving. Those industries will also see vast change in the next 50 years. We know people will still need food and even if the world moves away from its dependence on oil we suspect there will still be a need for technicians, engineers, geologists and other workers that make up that industry now.

There are also jobs not-yet dreamed of to be created in the next 50 years.

The good news is that people are taking steps now to ensure a brighter future for our community — and these efforts probably aren’t reflected in the data used that shows our decline. New daycare centers and preschools, new apartments and a continuous effort to improve our quality of life with better parks, events and services may very well turn the tide. We don’t have a crystal ball but we do know our destiny is in our hands. We can choose to make our community better and prove the predictions wrong.