The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, Dec. 31st is unchanged from the last several weeks. The six to ten-day outlook (Jan. 7 to 11) indicates a 40 to 60% chance of below normal temperatures and slightly above to near normal precipitation. The eight to 14-day outlook (Jan. 9 to 15) indicates normal to a 40% chance of leaning below normal for temperatures and normal for precipitation.  

As of today, the area is in much better shape in terms of soil moisture than a year ago. This is easily the overall best-looking wheat crop we have seen in several years heading into the depths of winter. Until now we have experienced above normal temperatures and mild conditions.

 Overall, for 2025, the planet appears to have experienced the warmest year on record. Here, we may not consider it as such but remember this is the average temperature. Today, what do climatologists predict for the 2025 growing season?

• For January through March we are looking at equal chances for above or below normal temperatures, likely due to the El Nino. And the same for precipitations with maybe a tilt toward slightly below normal. So overall, trending towards more average.

• February through April is more of the same for temperatures but leaning below normal for precipitation. March and April are when we should see an upward trend in precipitation from around 2.5” in March and over three in April.

• April through June sees a continuation of the previous pattern. Likely good conditions for planting if we can hold on to soil moisture and not lose it through tillage.

• June through August looks like leaning above normal for temperatures and below normal for precipitation. Not what we need for summer row crops and forages.

• July through August is predicted to have equal chances of above or below normal for temperature and leaning below normal for precipitation. Normally for June through August we should receive approximately 11 or so inches of precipitation.

• August through September is predicted for equal chances for above or below normal for both temperatures and precipitation.  

So, as of now it’s overall a crapshoot in terms of what to expect but not as negative as the last several years. The climate prediction center is usually pretty accurate overall. 

Naturally, the further out they look, there is a greater tendency for more imprecision in the outlook. The problem is in that as climate change impacts ocean temperatures and currents along with polar ice, it’s harder to accurately model. Models are based on the accumulation of data over many years. So, as things change the data isn’t there.

Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.